5 keys to preventing Tory election oblivion

With the gap in the opinion polls remaining alarmingly wide just 5 weeks out from the General Election, long held predictions of a Tory wipe-out continue to circulate, with some forecasts indicating the Conservative party may suffer their worst election result in over a century in returning fewer than 100 seats. Whilst it can be expected that the poll gap will close before we get to the big day, the fact remains that the possibility of a Labour landslide victory is very real.

Indeed, a Labour election victory has been virtually inevitable for months, and there appears to be very little that Rishi Sunak can do in the coming weeks to reverse the tide of opinion that has been steadfast since November 2022. However, what can potentially still be influenced is the size of the majority that Keir Starmer and his “changed” Labour party are celebrating in the early hours of July 5th.

There remain a number of variables in this election whose impact is largely unquantified at this point, and where the margin for error in the pollsters forecasts could be wide.

Here we review 5 factors that could be the difference between Labour returning a surprisingly slim majority (or in the extreme, potentially even a hung parliament), and a majority of 100+ seats and electoral wipe-out for the Tories:

1.     Higher than expected turnout

It is a widely held opinion that the voter turnout at this General election will be lower than average. This has been observed in a number of by-elections over the past 12 months, where voter apathy has been a key driving factor in the large swings in vote share from Conservative to Labour.

This has been driven by a combination of factors, including large portions of the Tory voter base abstaining from voting, general voter disillusionment with the state of politics at the moment leading to public disengagement from the polling stations, and the fact that by-elections typically tend to attract much lower turnouts than would be expected for a General election.

However, it is possible that the trends in voter turnout seen in these by-elections are not repeated in a General Election. General Elections would usually be expected to attract a turnout of somewhere between 60% of the population (at the lower end) to 70-80% at the higher end. By-elections, by contrast, have only been attracting a turnout of 30%-40% in the past 18 months.

Given the significant numbers of Conservative voters that have been abstaining, should the turnout for this election be higher than expected then it is likely to mean that those Tory voters have decided to turn out when it matters most, boosting the Tory vote share.

A low turnout is therefore likely to favour the Labour party, whereas if the Conservatives can convince their traditional supporter base to turn up and vote, then a turnout in excess of 70% could be achievable and act to bolster the Conservative result on the night.

2.     Reform UK support exaggerated

Much has been made of the detrimental impact that the presence of Reform UK in this election could have on the Tory vote share. The perceived wisdom is that reform offer a home to millions of traditional Conservative voters, who feel “politically homeless” having seen their party move too far to the centre and abandoning traditional Conservative values. The fact that the party has also jettisoned a number of cabinet ministers who represent the more right-leaning element of the party, such as Suella Braverman and Lee Anderson, has added weight to the sentiment.

However, results for Reform UK in the by-elections in which they have fielded candidates have been disappointing, suggesting that their polling numbers may be exaggerated. Add to this a couple of narratives that continue to gain traction as we approach this election: (i). that a vote for any party other than Labour or Conservative is a wasted vote; and (ii). A vote for Reform will take vote share away from the Conservatives and open the door wider for a Labour majority.

Whilst a sizeable proportion of Conservative voters have expressed approval for the policies of Reform UK, and indicated an intention to consider voting for them, this is quite possibly just a point of protest against the Tories. When it comes to the day of the General election, many of those people will realise that it is impossible for reform to win an election, and will revert back to voting Conservative, despite their disapproval of the party’s policies and actions in recent times. Certainly Rishi Sunak will be hoping that support for Reform UK in the polls does not translate to votes in any significant numbers.

3.     SNP vote collapse overstated

Scotland is certainly a target area for Keir Starmer in this election. After years of SNP dominance north of the border, the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and subsequent farcical period of leadership under Humza Yousef have eroded confidence in the SNP as a governing party. With independence seemingly further from reality than it has been in 20 years, many are predicting that Labour can win plenty of seats in Scotland to bolster their overall majority at this election.

However, it is perfectly possible that pro-independence Scottish voters will continue to vote for the SNP, despite their recent troubles. This is because, ultimately, a large proportion of Scots want to be governed by a party that they believe genuinely holds the interests of the Scottish people above those of the Westminster elite, and want as much distance from a Westminster-based Government as possible.

Labour also have shown no inclination to consider discussions about another independence referendum, so are unlikely to appeal to those voters for whom the pursuit of Scottish independence remains the overriding priority.

As such, Labour’s ability to win seats north of the border may not be as strong as they think.

4.     Impact of independents, and George Galloway’s Workers Party of Britain

The collapse of support amongst Muslim communities for Labour has been one of Keir Starmers’ biggest headaches in recent months. Traditionally a reliable source of votes for the party, the inability of Starmer and many of his MPs to immediately back a ceasefire in Gaza have led to rebellion in Labours’ Muslim supporter base. The feeling of betrayal has led to independent candidates standing and winning by-elections in densely Muslim populated areas of the country, which were once considered safe seats for labour.

In as many as 40 constituencies across the country, Labour are likely to bleed votes at the election to candidates standing on a pro-Gaza ticket. Some high-profile Labour MPs, most notably deputy leader Angela Rayner, are wary of their fragile majorities and looking nervously over their shoulder at the threat posed from independents in their areas.

Add to this the growing publicity being afforded to former Labour MPs who have been ousted from the party and now stand against Labour as independent candidates in constituencies they have represented for many years (most notably Jeremy Corbyn, and at the time of writing an increasingly likely Dianne Abbott), and it seems increasingly likely that Labour’s hesitant stance on Gaza and growing support amongst Muslim communities for candidates representing The Workers Party of Britain may have the same impact on the Labour vote share that the Reform UK vote may have on the Tories.

It is difficult to quantify the extent to which this will translate to votes on the day, but certainly it is likely to be a thorn in the side of Labour that will be causing some trepidation on the front and back benches.

5.     Boris back on the party bandwagon

Rumours have begun circulating that Boris Johnson could stand for re-election in one of the many seats being vacated by the droves of Tory MPs standing down. Whilst Boris himself has not confirmed his intentions, and as unlikely as it seems given the timescales, to get Boris back involved with the party and on the campaign trail could do wonders to the Conservatives chances.

Boris is a proven vote winner. Partygate was long enough ago now to be unlikely to prejudice people’s voting intentions towards him. And many of the voters who deserted the party following his unceremonious ousting in 2022 would likely be tempted back if he were to get involved and publicly endorse the Tory campaign.

It does however appear wildly fanciful, and the odds of him standing in this election are very slim. He is making tonnes of money outside of politics currently, and is unlikely to want to join a sinking ship, or be associated with an administration possibly standing on the precipice of their worst election result in a century. Should he believe he has unfinished business in government, he is much more likely to fancy playing the role of the “white knight” riding back into town after the election to rescue the Tory party from the gutter.

But who ever really knows what Boris is going to do. He seemingly could have any number of seats to choose to stand in. Could the temptation of the limelight encourage him back at this stage? If so, it would be a monumental coup for a party who have floundered since his departure, and reinvigorate what already feels like a tired and uninspiring Conservative election campaign.